The baseline assumptions for real GDP growth and the unemployment rate for 2009 and 2010 were assumed to be equal to the average of the projections published by Consensus Forecasts, the Blue Chip survey, and the Survey of Professional Forecasters.
The projections were based on forecasts available in February 2009 just before the commencement of the SCAP. The baseline scenario was intended to represent a consensus view about the depth and duration of the recession.
The supervisors developed an alternative “more adverse” scenario to reflect the possibility that the economy could turn out to be appreciably weaker than expected under the baseline outlook. By design, the path of the U.S. economy in this alternative more adverse scenario reflects a deeper and longer recession than in the baseline. However, the more adverse alternative is not, and is not intended to be a “worst case” scenario. To be most useful, stress tests should reflect conditions that are severe but plausible.
The “more adverse” scenario was constructed from the historical track record of private forecasters as well as their current assessments of uncertainty. In particular, based on the historical accuracy of Blue Chip forecasts made since the late 1970s, the likelihood that the average unemployment rate in 2010 could be at least as high as in the alternative more adverse scenario is roughly 10 percent. In addition, the subjective probability assessments provided by participants in the January Consensus Forecasts survey and the February Survey of Professional Forecasters imply a roughly 15 percent chance that real GDP growth could be at least as low, and unemployment at least as high, as assumed in the more adverse scenario.
Federal Reserve: The Supervisory Capital Assessment Program: Design and Implementation
Ohmigod, looks like in the “more adverse” scenario, the recession lasts about 3 months longer.