Comments on: Scariest Chart EVER: Loss Severity, Subprime First-Lien http://www.aleablog.com/scariest-chart-ever-loss-severity-subprime-first-lien/ Alea Jacta Est Mon, 12 Jul 2010 20:04:31 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0 By: TS Gordon http://www.aleablog.com/scariest-chart-ever-loss-severity-subprime-first-lien/#comment-3784 TS Gordon Wed, 10 Feb 2010 20:36:53 +0000 http://www.aleablog.com/?p=4542#comment-3784 Seems to me the banks have a lot of unsold inventory. Also they are not in the position of lending to anyone approaching sub-prime. Likewise, those of us who wisely won't be seeking additional debt will be sitting on the fence until we observe real signs of recovery. Therefore, 'leading indicators' in the consumer sector suggest zero foresseeable growth. No need to specualte on a rebound in housing until there is a major shift in the (ahhhem,) Federal budget 'break'down. Greece reported a previously undisclosed $50B. loss just yesterday. Germany can tenporarily take up the slack, but all of the EU is perilously near a breakdown as well. Seems to me the banks have a lot of unsold inventory. Also they are not in the position of lending to anyone approaching sub-prime. Likewise, those of us who wisely won’t be seeking additional debt will be sitting on the fence until we observe real signs of recovery.

Therefore, ‘leading indicators’ in the consumer sector suggest zero foresseeable growth. No need to specualte on a rebound in housing until there is a major shift in the (ahhhem,) Federal budget ‘break’down.

Greece reported a previously undisclosed $50B. loss just yesterday. Germany can tenporarily take up the slack, but all of the EU is perilously near a breakdown as well.

]]> By: Tony http://www.aleablog.com/scariest-chart-ever-loss-severity-subprime-first-lien/#comment-3783 Tony Tue, 09 Feb 2010 14:05:05 +0000 http://www.aleablog.com/?p=4542#comment-3783 So what is the % of defaulted paper being sold into collection and how much cash is that to the bankers (or is it the same group just a shuffle)? When the local housing market in Alaska tanked years ago the paper was bought up. Individuals that walked away, down the road when they recovered were slammed again to pay the debt on the long gone house. Seems to me this will pretty much destroy the financial future of a generation of Americans. That rotten apple so to speak could rot the whole barrel. So what is the % of defaulted paper being sold into collection and how much cash is that to the bankers (or is it the same group just a shuffle)? When the local housing market in Alaska tanked years ago the paper was bought up. Individuals that walked away, down the road when they recovered were slammed again to pay the debt on the long gone house. Seems to me this will pretty much destroy the financial future of a generation of Americans. That rotten apple so to speak could rot the whole barrel.

]]> By: american patriot http://www.aleablog.com/scariest-chart-ever-loss-severity-subprime-first-lien/#comment-3782 american patriot Tue, 09 Feb 2010 12:54:37 +0000 http://www.aleablog.com/?p=4542#comment-3782 By the way a Townhouse I rented for 1300 a Month. The owners paid $550K for it and it is now worth $280K Before long it will be worth $100K By the way a Townhouse I rented for 1300 a Month. The owners paid $550K for it and it is now worth $280K
Before long it will be worth $100K

]]> By: american patriot http://www.aleablog.com/scariest-chart-ever-loss-severity-subprime-first-lien/#comment-3781 american patriot Tue, 09 Feb 2010 12:52:28 +0000 http://www.aleablog.com/?p=4542#comment-3781 People we have seen nothing yet. Have none of you heard of Elizabeth Warren. She has already stated on national TV that we have a Ksunami of Foreclosures coming between now and 2011. Minimum Foreclosures coming, 81/2 MILLION. Elizabeth was hired by Obama to over see the TARP Bailout Money. Elizabeth has informed the President of this and yet YOU do not hear him say a word about it or address it with the Public. A Billionaire Realestate Investor stated by the time the Housing Market bottoms out. A $500K house will cost $100K. THAT IS WHEN I AM BUYING.............................. People we have seen nothing yet.
Have none of you heard of Elizabeth Warren. She has already stated on national TV that we have a Ksunami of Foreclosures coming between now and 2011.
Minimum Foreclosures coming, 81/2 MILLION.

Elizabeth was hired by Obama to over see the TARP Bailout Money. Elizabeth has informed the President of this and yet YOU do not hear him say a word about it or address it with the Public.

A Billionaire Realestate Investor stated by the time the Housing Market bottoms out. A $500K house will cost $100K.

THAT IS WHEN I AM BUYING…………………………

]]> By: shimari http://www.aleablog.com/scariest-chart-ever-loss-severity-subprime-first-lien/#comment-3779 shimari Tue, 09 Feb 2010 09:23:16 +0000 http://www.aleablog.com/?p=4542#comment-3779 Hey there: This only counts those losses that occur. Shouldn't there be a representation of what percentage of these foreclosures result in a loss? Or factor in loss-less or profitable (if there are any) foreclosures. Hey there:

This only counts those losses that occur. Shouldn’t there be a representation of what percentage of these foreclosures result in a loss? Or factor in loss-less or profitable (if there are any) foreclosures.

]]> By: S Sommer http://www.aleablog.com/scariest-chart-ever-loss-severity-subprime-first-lien/#comment-3778 S Sommer Tue, 09 Feb 2010 08:51:04 +0000 http://www.aleablog.com/?p=4542#comment-3778 PS Madoff went to prison for ripping people off. If AIG and Goldman Sachs and the Big Boys have destroyed the nation's pensions... When do they walk the plank? Recently, Megan Mc Cain said that "young people start revolutions, not old people." If the old people of this country have to face cuts in Medicare and Social Security and then find out their pensions have gone bust due to AIG and GS, etc. Um... watch out! "Politicians and Bankers Beaten to Death by Cane-Wielding Persons!" Ack! PS

Madoff went to prison for ripping people off.

If AIG and Goldman Sachs and the Big Boys have destroyed the nation’s pensions…

When do they walk the plank?

Recently, Megan Mc Cain said that “young people start revolutions, not old people.”

If the old people of this country have to face cuts in Medicare and Social Security and then find out their pensions have gone bust due to AIG and GS, etc. Um… watch out!

“Politicians and Bankers Beaten to Death by Cane-Wielding Persons!” Ack!

]]> By: S Sommer http://www.aleablog.com/scariest-chart-ever-loss-severity-subprime-first-lien/#comment-3777 S Sommer Tue, 09 Feb 2010 08:43:57 +0000 http://www.aleablog.com/?p=4542#comment-3777 Amen to Dr. J and Jaybee. My thoughts, exactly! Next thought: how this plays into the value of pension funds and endowments. AIG was a big player in pensions, as were many of the other "players." Goldman Sachs stopped buying securitized mortgages three YEARS before they stopped selling them, including to foreign entities, mostly in Europe. Cities, counties, states, private and public pension funds, both here and abroad. University endowment funds, charities' endowments. Trillions destroyed. Hedge funds "insuring" these "investments," with NO money to back up the policies! No oversight, no regulation, "free marketeers" who tolerated no interference. Great. Politicians in their pocket. The SEC asleep. The ratings agencies bought and paid off. As you say, what happens when the banks have to acknowledge these losses? When do we find out how bad off the pension funds really are? Do we have any idea, yet? Tons of them were already under-funded. Now, they could have evaporated. Hope I am wrong!!! But, this is what I have been asking myself for about two years, now. Can anybody put my mind at ease on this? I just see big bankers making a run for it! Amen to Dr. J and Jaybee.

My thoughts, exactly!

Next thought: how this plays into the value of pension funds and endowments.

AIG was a big player in pensions, as were many of the other “players.” Goldman Sachs stopped buying securitized mortgages three YEARS before they stopped selling them, including to foreign entities, mostly in Europe. Cities, counties, states, private and public pension funds, both here and abroad. University endowment funds, charities’ endowments.

Trillions destroyed.

Hedge funds “insuring” these “investments,” with NO money to back up the policies!

No oversight, no regulation, “free marketeers” who tolerated no interference. Great.

Politicians in their pocket. The SEC asleep. The ratings agencies bought and paid off.

As you say, what happens when the banks have to acknowledge these losses?

When do we find out how bad off the pension funds really are? Do we have any idea, yet?

Tons of them were already under-funded. Now, they could have evaporated.

Hope I am wrong!!! But, this is what I have been asking myself for about two years, now.

Can anybody put my mind at ease on this? I just see big bankers making a run for it!

]]> By: jg http://www.aleablog.com/scariest-chart-ever-loss-severity-subprime-first-lien/#comment-3776 jg Tue, 09 Feb 2010 08:34:41 +0000 http://www.aleablog.com/?p=4542#comment-3776 seems like a pretty simple scam to me if you want to dispossess the middle class. reduce interest rates, create a bubble, export industry so that your victim can no longer be self sustaining while distracting them with fake equity that they think is wealth, (that they use to buy consumer goods, giving the illusion of affluence) in a phony service economy that produces barely anything of value, buy up real assets/productive capacity in both real terms and on the stock market, soak up housing inventory so as not to pop the bubble too fast, slowly make borrowing more difficult, eventually start tweaking interest rates and viola! - you now own 95% of the world, the former middle class is helpless, and you spend the rest of your days eating sushi off the bodies of hot naked chicks...although there is the slight problem of a very annoyed, formerly wealthy public with a bunch of guns seems like a pretty simple scam to me if you want to dispossess the middle class. reduce interest rates, create a bubble, export industry so that your victim can no longer be self sustaining while distracting them with fake equity that they think is wealth, (that they use to buy consumer goods, giving the illusion of affluence) in a phony service economy that produces barely anything of value, buy up real assets/productive capacity in both real terms and on the stock market, soak up housing inventory so as not to pop the bubble too fast, slowly make borrowing more difficult, eventually start tweaking interest rates and viola! – you now own 95% of the world, the former middle class is helpless, and you spend the rest of your days eating sushi off the bodies of hot naked chicks…although there is the slight problem of a very annoyed, formerly wealthy public with a bunch of guns

]]> By: Dr J http://www.aleablog.com/scariest-chart-ever-loss-severity-subprime-first-lien/#comment-3774 Dr J Tue, 09 Feb 2010 05:07:59 +0000 http://www.aleablog.com/?p=4542#comment-3774 The present strategy to encourage lending, prevent foreclosures and keep house prices high is not for the benefit of the poor schmucks who are underwater with their mortgages but to prop up the banks who have all these non-performing "assets" on their books. How does the average Joe benefit from a government strategy to drive the price of housing higher? This is what has been happening ever since the inception of the GSEs. By making mortgages more easily obtainable, the government increased the pool of buyers vs sellers in the real estate market. Simple market economics tells you that this will drive the price up. Who benefits, not the poor slob who grabbed the cheap mortgage. It was the seller who profited initially. Then it was the banks who were incentivised to write as many of these mortgages as they could because they were going to securitise them and pass them on to a greater fool. The problem is that the greater fool now turns out to be the tax payer whose grandchildrens' future has been consigned to indentured servitude by the massive government borrowing to support the banks by buying all this toxic financial waste. Meanwhile the banks are allowed to mark to fantasy the value of this garbage so that technically bankrupt institutions can declare massive profits and pay huge bonuses. This is madness and will not end well. The people at the top are smart enough to know this. Why are they not acting in your interest by bringing this colossal farce to an end? Who is benefiting from this? Follow the money! The present strategy to encourage lending, prevent foreclosures and keep house prices high is not for the benefit of the poor schmucks who are underwater with their mortgages but to prop up the banks who have all these non-performing “assets” on their books. How does the average Joe benefit from a government strategy to drive the price of housing higher? This is what has been happening ever since the inception of the GSEs. By making mortgages more easily obtainable, the government increased the pool of buyers vs sellers in the real estate market. Simple market economics tells you that this will drive the price up. Who benefits, not the poor slob who grabbed the cheap mortgage. It was the seller who profited initially. Then it was the banks who were incentivised to write as many of these mortgages as they could because they were going to securitise them and pass them on to a greater fool. The problem is that the greater fool now turns out to be the tax payer whose grandchildrens’ future has been consigned to indentured servitude by the massive government borrowing to support the banks by buying all this toxic financial waste. Meanwhile the banks are allowed to mark to fantasy the value of this garbage so that technically bankrupt institutions can declare massive profits and pay huge bonuses. This is madness and will not end well. The people at the top are smart enough to know this. Why are they not acting in your interest by bringing this colossal farce to an end? Who is benefiting from this? Follow the money!

]]> By: juan http://www.aleablog.com/scariest-chart-ever-loss-severity-subprime-first-lien/#comment-3773 juan Tue, 09 Feb 2010 04:31:46 +0000 http://www.aleablog.com/?p=4542#comment-3773 we need more illegals to drive wages down!! we need more illegals to drive wages down!!

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