Comments for Alea http://www.aleablog.com Alea Jacta Est Tue, 07 Sep 2010 13:59:07 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.0.1 Comment on This Is From The Wall Street Journal by Andrew Meyer http://www.aleablog.com/this-is-from-the-wall-street-journal/#comment-4014 Andrew Meyer Tue, 07 Sep 2010 13:59:07 +0000 http://www.aleablog.com/?p=4770#comment-4014 It's an odd way to present the information graphically and the graphs they are presenting are not representative of the numbers. In the Spanish debt picture, if the area represents the debt, then the 34.7B would be the area, taking the square root of that would make each side 5.89 or we could round it to 6. The square root of 6.6B (the stress test) is 2.5. So the first graph should show that the stress test covers about one-third of the area, which is doesn't. The other graphs are similarly misleading. To me, there are two mistakes. They shouldn't have tried to present the picture using area in a square, the nature of square roots and area will minimize the impact, not maximize it, which presumably they are trying to do. Secondly, the grapher should have failed geometry. It’s an odd way to present the information graphically and the graphs they are presenting are not representative of the numbers.

In the Spanish debt picture, if the area represents the debt, then the 34.7B would be the area, taking the square root of that would make each side 5.89 or we could round it to 6.

The square root of 6.6B (the stress test) is 2.5.

So the first graph should show that the stress test covers about one-third of the area, which is doesn’t.

The other graphs are similarly misleading. To me, there are two mistakes. They shouldn’t have tried to present the picture using area in a square, the nature of square roots and area will minimize the impact, not maximize it, which presumably they are trying to do. Secondly, the grapher should have failed geometry.

]]> Comment on This Is From The Wall Street Journal by Richard Smith http://www.aleablog.com/this-is-from-the-wall-street-journal/#comment-4013 Richard Smith Tue, 07 Sep 2010 10:35:26 +0000 http://www.aleablog.com/?p=4770#comment-4013 Stunning. I think squaring the numbers you want to portray before you graph them should become an industry standard. It makes them even more exciting. Stunning.

I think squaring the numbers you want to portray before you graph them should become an industry standard. It makes them even more exciting.

]]> Comment on This Is From The Wall Street Journal by Marcus http://www.aleablog.com/this-is-from-the-wall-street-journal/#comment-4012 Marcus Tue, 07 Sep 2010 09:22:43 +0000 http://www.aleablog.com/?p=4770#comment-4012 Not just the graph, the whole piece is recycling of old news. It seems nobody at WSJ is familiar with what the banks were asked to do for these stress tests. Not just the graph, the whole piece is recycling of old news.
It seems nobody at WSJ is familiar with what the banks were asked to do for these stress tests.

]]> Comment on Impact of High and Growing Government Debt on Economic Growth by Carlomagno http://www.aleablog.com/impact-of-high-and-growing-government-debt-on-economic-growth/#comment-4004 Carlomagno Wed, 01 Sep 2010 17:19:07 +0000 http://www.aleablog.com/?p=4746#comment-4004 Indeed! Indeed!

]]> Comment on Impact of High and Growing Government Debt on Economic Growth by jck http://www.aleablog.com/impact-of-high-and-growing-government-debt-on-economic-growth/#comment-4003 jck Wed, 01 Sep 2010 16:17:19 +0000 http://www.aleablog.com/?p=4746#comment-4003 the data set is a bit thin + the conclusion is just what the ECB wants to hear. the data set is a bit thin + the conclusion is just what the ECB wants to hear.

]]> Comment on Impact of High and Growing Government Debt on Economic Growth by Carlomagno http://www.aleablog.com/impact-of-high-and-growing-government-debt-on-economic-growth/#comment-4002 Carlomagno Wed, 01 Sep 2010 15:19:22 +0000 http://www.aleablog.com/?p=4746#comment-4002 A quick perusal of Eurostat GFS tables confirms that Belgium, Greece and Italy are the only Eurozpne countries that have persistently breached the debt thresholds. Seems an awfully small sample to work with, plus there are other structural factors that coumld explain the low growth in these countries. Are the results presented in this ECB paper any more reliable that those of Reinhard and Rogoff (which are dominated by the post-WWII years in the US)? A quick perusal of Eurostat GFS tables confirms that Belgium, Greece and Italy are the only Eurozpne countries that have persistently breached the debt thresholds. Seems an awfully small sample to work with, plus there are other structural factors that coumld explain the low growth in these countries. Are the results presented in this ECB paper any more reliable that those of Reinhard and Rogoff (which are dominated by the post-WWII years in the US)?

]]> Comment on The Paradox of Toil by jck http://www.aleablog.com/the-paradox-of-toil/#comment-3974 jck Mon, 12 Jul 2010 20:04:31 +0000 http://www.aleablog.com/?p=4716#comment-3974 no idea, it is an unusual pattern... no idea, it is an unusual pattern…

]]> Comment on The Paradox of Toil by Ilya http://www.aleablog.com/the-paradox-of-toil/#comment-3973 Ilya Mon, 12 Jul 2010 19:59:23 +0000 http://www.aleablog.com/?p=4716#comment-3973 JCK, I have a question related to GLD/GC options Implied Volatility. This IV rises with the farther expirations while, say for SPY is stays about the same. For instance: GLD August options: IV is about 18 GLD Jan'11 options: IV is about 22.3 GLD Jan'12 options: IV is about 27.4 SPY August options: IV is about 23 SPY Dec'10 options: IV is about 25 SPY Dec'11 options: IV is about 25 Any thoughts? TIA, Ilya JCK, I have a question related to GLD/GC options Implied Volatility. This IV rises with the farther expirations while, say for SPY is stays about the same.
For instance:

GLD August options: IV is about 18
GLD Jan’11 options: IV is about 22.3
GLD Jan’12 options: IV is about 27.4

SPY August options: IV is about 23
SPY Dec’10 options: IV is about 25
SPY Dec’11 options: IV is about 25

Any thoughts? TIA, Ilya

]]> Comment on The Paradox of Toil by andrew http://www.aleablog.com/the-paradox-of-toil/#comment-3972 andrew Tue, 06 Jul 2010 08:19:12 +0000 http://www.aleablog.com/?p=4716#comment-3972 In a non-Marxian world, Gregor's comment would read "I do not like green eggs and ham". In a non-Marxian world, Gregor’s comment would read “I do not like green eggs and ham”.

]]> Comment on The Paradox of Toil by David Merkel http://www.aleablog.com/the-paradox-of-toil/#comment-3971 David Merkel Tue, 06 Jul 2010 07:29:56 +0000 http://www.aleablog.com/?p=4716#comment-3971 I commented on this paper before. Point 3 of this piece: http://alephblog.com/2010/03/04/notes-and-comments-2/ I commented on this paper before. Point 3 of this piece:

http://alephblog.com/2010/03/04/notes-and-comments-2/

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