There was a telling moment yesterday on the NYTimes.com website. It was just after 10:30 in the morning and the top of the site featured a breaking news article about the S&P 500 heading into higher territory. The article offered the usual litany of explanations, from better than expected news on housing starts to a surprising uptick in retail sales. But here’s the catch: by the time I glanced at the article it was already obsolete…
- DTCC Posts 6-Month Market Activity Snapshot on CDS Market
- Default in Today’s Advanced Economies: Unnecessary, Undesirable, and Unlikely
- The Impact of Banks’ Cumulative Reserve Position on Federal Funds Rate Behavior
- A Wolf in Sheep’s Clothing
- TBA Trading and Liquidity in the Agency MBS Market
- Impact of High and Growing Government Debt on Economic Growth
- Financial Amplification of Foreign Exchange Risk Premia
- The Central-Bank Balance Sheet as an Instrument of Monetary Policy
- Exorbitant Privilege and Exorbitant Duty
- The Information Value of the Stress Test and Bank Opacity
- Price of Risk—Recent Evidence from Large Financials
- Shadow Banking
- Summer Doldrums
- Credit Default Swaps: What Are the Social Benefits and Costs?
- The International Role of the Euro
- Chronicle of Currency Collapses: Re-Examining the Effects on Output
- The Paradox of Toil
- Links
- What the Fed Did and Why
- Markets and Government Before, During and After the 2007-20xx Crisis
- Detecting and Interpreting Financial Stress in the Euro Area
- Are We Building the Foundations for the Next Crisis Already? The Case of Central Clearing
- Links
- Links
- OIS Discounting
- Multimarket Trading and the Cost of Debt: Evidence from Global Bonds
- Is Economics Coursework, or Majoring in Economics, Associated with Different Civic Behaviors?
- China’s High Saving Rate: Myth and Reality
- Oil Spill
- Eurozone €440 Bln SPV Aid Fund
- ECB Financial Accounts and ECB Financial Strength
- Central Bank Swap Networks
- DTCC Posts CDS Market Activity Snapshot
- ECB: Financial Stability Review (June 2010)
- Global CDO Issuance by Transaction Structure
- Links
- TBAC Minutes: Sovereign CDS and Swap Spreads
- Goldman Sachs Underwriting Market Shares in Subprime RMBS and CDOs
- Abacus for Dummies
- The World’s Safest and Riskiest Sovereign Debt (Update)
- Increased Sovereign Risk Behind Negative Swap Spreads
- Haircuts
- Markets, Religion, Community Size, and the Evolution of Fairness and Punishment
- Beyond the Dollar: Rethinking the International Monetary System
- Links
- Amazing Discovery
- ABCP Outstanding: Still Crashing
- Greek Government Bond Market
- Links
- Sterling Today
I think there is a “bias” issue, people, myself included, are prone to notice the discrepancy when the headline is wrong and blank it out when right. I have checked this before (small sample) and it’s pretty random. Best strategy, ignore headlines: just noise, watching order flow is more important for trading.
I’ve noticed this numerous times on the NYTimes. Someone should put together a system to bet against the headlines and see how well it does.